Has the math finally started to shift for buyers?

Earlier this year, we looked at whether it made more sense to rent or buy in Burnaby. With the market continuing to soften through the summer, we thought it was time to run the numbers again.

Rather than using broad averages, we found actual homes someone could reasonably be choosing between today. We looked at two different situations: a single person considering a one-bedroom in Metrotown and a family looking for a three-bedroom townhouse near Edmonds.

And we'll admit something up front: we probably have a slight bias toward buying in the current market.

We're Realtors, so you can take that for what it's worth. But more importantly, we've been through a lot of Vancouver real estate cycles over the years, and buying when the market feels uncomfortable has often created opportunities that weren't there when everyone was feeling optimistic.

That doesn't mean prices can't fall further. They absolutely can.

But prices have already corrected considerably. Across Greater Vancouver, apartment benchmark prices were down 6.6% year-over-year in August, while townhouses were down 4.4%. Overall sales were 20.7% below the 10-year seasonal average and inventory remained 26.2% above normal.

Our own Brad & Theo Market Pulse is currently sitting at 19/100 — firmly in Extreme Buyer territory.

That doesn't tell us where the bottom is. But we do think it means buyers should at least be running the numbers.

Scenario 1: A one-bedroom in Metrotown

For our purchase example, we're using a junior one-bedroom at The Standard by Anthem at 6468 Willingdon Avenue. The 425 sq. ft. home sold for $480,900 at the end of August, with strata fees of $231.21 per month.

For rent, we found another junior one-bedroom in the same building offered at $2,200 per month, including parking and storage.

We're assuming 20% down, a 25-year amortization and approximately 4.24% for a five-year fixed mortgage.

This one is pretty close.

For approximately $237 more per month, our buyer owns the property rather than renting it. There will be some additional costs—we haven't included condo insurance or occasional repairs—but a portion of every mortgage payment is also paying down principal and building equity.

For someone who has the down payment and expects to stay for several years, we think this is a scenario where buying deserves a serious look.

There is another factor here: one-bedroom rentals aren't particularly difficult to find right now.

When we searched for our rental comparisons, there was considerably more selection at the one-bedroom level. So someone renting a one-bedroom has options and doesn't necessarily need to rush into buying.

Scenario 2: A three-bedroom townhouse near Edmonds

The family example looks quite different.

We're using a 1,311 sq. ft., three-bedroom townhouse at Village Del Mar that sold this summer for $820,000. It has three bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, parking and storage and is walking distance to Edmonds SkyTrain.

We're using $550 per month as a reasonable current strata allowance.

For rent, we found a comparable three-bedroom, 2.5-bath townhouse near Edmonds Station asking $3,060 per month, also with parking and storage.

On pure monthly cash flow, renting wins this one pretty easily.

You're saving roughly $1,260 per month by renting.

But something else became apparent while we were putting this together: finding that rental wasn't easy.

There are lots of one-bedroom condos available for rent. Finding a decent three-bedroom condo or townhouse in this part of Burnaby was much harder.

That's worth considering for a family.

The financial flexibility of renting is attractive, but families often value housing stability differently. Moving a single person out of a one-bedroom apartment is one thing. Moving a family—with kids, schools, furniture and neighbourhood connections—is something else.

So why would you buy the townhouse?

This is where the decision becomes less about a spreadsheet.

The buyer is paying considerably more every month. But some of the mortgage payment is principal rather than an expense, and the buyer also gets long-term control over the home.

There's also the question nobody can answer today:

What happens to prices from here?

Greater Vancouver's composite benchmark is already down about 5.6% from last year, apartments are down 6.6%, and townhouses are down 4.4%.

Could prices fall further? Absolutely.

But after a correction of this size, we also think buyers need to consider the other side of the risk: what happens if the market rebounds?

Our Market Pulse being at 19/100 doesn't predict a rebound. In fact, it tells us conditions are currently very weak.

But extreme conditions don't last forever.

If prices eventually recover, today's buyer benefits from buying after much of the correction has already occurred. If prices continue falling, they'll obviously wish they had waited.

That's the trade-off.

Our Fall 2026 takeaway

The one-bedroom example surprised us.

At $2,437 to own versus $2,200 to rent, the monthly difference is small enough that someone with a down payment and a reasonably long time horizon should probably be looking closely at ownership.

The three-bedroom is much less clear.

At $4,323 to own versus $3,060 to rent, renting offers a substantial monthly saving. But rental selection is also considerably tighter for family-sized homes, and ownership provides a level of stability that can become more important once kids and schools are involved.

So are we telling everyone to buy?

No.

But we'll admit that we're more interested in buying opportunities today than we were when prices were considerably higher and buyers were competing with each other.

Markets rarely feel safest when the best opportunities are available.

We're not suggesting we know where the bottom is—we don't. But with prices down, buyers having negotiating power, and our Market Pulse sitting in extreme territory, we think Fall 2026 is a particularly good time to at least run the numbers.

Sometimes the answer will still be rent.

But the gap is getting interesting.