Has the math finally started to shift for buyers?

Earlier this year, we looked at whether it made more sense to rent or buy in Burnaby. With the market continuing to soften through the summer, we thought it was time to run the numbers again.

Rather than using broad averages, we found actual homes someone could reasonably be choosing between today. We looked at two different situations: a single person considering a one-bedroom in Metrotown and a family looking for a three-bedroom townhouse near Edmonds.

And we'll admit something up front: we probably have a slight bias toward buying in the current market.

We're Realtors, so you can take that for what it's worth. But more importantly, we've been through a lot of Vancouver real estate cycles over the years, and buying when the market feels uncomfortable has often created opportunities that weren't there when everyone was feeling optimistic.

That doesn't mean prices can't fall further. They absolutely can.

But prices have already corrected considerably. Across Greater Vancouver, apartment benchmark prices were down 6.6% year-over-year in August, while townhouses were down 4.4%. Overall sales were 20.7% below the 10-year seasonal average and inventory remained 26.2% above normal.

Our own Brad & Theo Market Pulse is currently sitting at 19/100 — firmly in Extreme Buyer territory.

That doesn't tell us where the bottom is. But we do think it means buyers should at least be running the numbers.

Scenario 1: A one-bedroom in Metrotown

For our purchase example, we're using a junior one-bedroom at The Standard by Anthem at 6468 Willingdon Avenue. The 425 sq. ft. home sold for $480,900 at the end of August, with strata fees of $231.21 per month.

For rent, we found another junior one-bedroom in the same building offered at $2,200 per month, including parking and storage.

We're assuming 20% down, a 25-year amortization and approximately 4.24% for a five-year fixed mortgage.

This one is pretty close.

For approximately $237 more per month, our buyer owns the property rather than renting it. There will be some additional costs—we haven't included condo insurance or occasional repairs—but a portion of every mortgage payment is also paying down principal and building equity.

For someone who has the down payment and expects to stay for several years, we think this is a scenario where buying deserves a serious look.

There is another factor here: one-bedroom rentals aren't particularly difficult to find right now.

When we searched for our rental comparisons, there was considerably more selection at the one-bedroom level. So someone renting a one-bedroom has options and doesn't necessarily need to rush into buying.

Scenario 2: A three-bedroom townhouse near Edmonds

The family example looks quite different.

We're using a 1,311 sq. ft., three-bedroom townhouse at Village Del Mar that sold this summer for $820,000. It has three bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, parking and storage and is walking distance to Edmonds SkyTrain.

We're using $550 per month as a reasonable current strata allowance.

For rent, we found a comparable three-bedroom, 2.5-bath townhouse near Edmonds Station asking $3,060 per month, also with parking and storage.

On pure monthly cash flow, renting wins this one pretty easily.

You're saving roughly $1,260 per month by renting.

But something else became apparent while we were putting this together: finding that rental wasn't easy.

There are lots of one-bedroom condos available for rent. Finding a decent three-bedroom condo or townhouse in this part of Burnaby was much harder.

That's worth considering for a family.

The financial flexibility of renting is attractive, but families often value housing stability differently. Moving a single person out of a one-bedroom apartment is one thing. Moving a family—with kids, schools, furniture and neighbourhood connections—is something else.

So why would you buy the townhouse?

This is where the decision becomes less about a spreadsheet.

The buyer is paying considerably more every month. But some of the mortgage payment is principal rather than an expense, and the buyer also gets long-term control over the home.

There's also the question nobody can answer today:

What happens to prices from here?

Greater Vancouver's composite benchmark is already down about 5.6% from last year, apartments are down 6.6%, and townhouses are down 4.4%.

Could prices fall further? Absolutely.

But after a correction of this size, we also think buyers need to consider the other side of the risk: what happens if the market rebounds?

Our Market Pulse being at 19/100 doesn't predict a rebound. In fact, it tells us conditions are currently very weak.

But extreme conditions don't last forever.

If prices eventually recover, today's buyer benefits from buying after much of the correction has already occurred. If prices continue falling, they'll obviously wish they had waited.

That's the trade-off.

Our Fall 2026 takeaway

The one-bedroom example surprised us.

At $2,437 to own versus $2,200 to rent, the monthly difference is small enough that someone with a down payment and a reasonably long time horizon should probably be looking closely at ownership.

The three-bedroom is much less clear.

At $4,323 to own versus $3,060 to rent, renting offers a substantial monthly saving. But rental selection is also considerably tighter for family-sized homes, and ownership provides a level of stability that can become more important once kids and schools are involved.

So are we telling everyone to buy?

No.

But we'll admit that we're more interested in buying opportunities today than we were when prices were considerably higher and buyers were competing with each other.

Markets rarely feel safest when the best opportunities are available.

We're not suggesting we know where the bottom is—we don't. But with prices down, buyers having negotiating power, and our Market Pulse sitting in extreme territory, we think Fall 2026 is a particularly good time to at least run the numbers.

Sometimes the answer will still be rent.

But the gap is getting interesting.

What the August 2026 Market Pulse Means for Vancouver and Burnaby Real Estate

The Brad & Theo Market Pulse fell to 24 out of 100 in August, down from 32 last month and firmly in Buyer Advantage territory.

After some encouraging signs in June, July's numbers suggest the Vancouver real estate market has not yet established a convincing bottom. Sales weakened, prices continued to soften, and buyers still have plenty of choice.

But the headline numbers don't tell the entire story. Our recent transactions in Vancouver, Burnaby and New Westminster show that buyers haven't disappeared—they've become much more selective about what they buy and how much they're prepared to pay.

Is Vancouver Real Estate Still a Buyer's Market?

Our Market Pulse says yes.

July sales declined across all three major property categories. Detached sales were down 2.4% year over year, apartment sales fell 17.5%, and townhome sales declined 6.1%.

Prices also continued to soften. Compared with July 2025, benchmark prices were down 7.0% for detached homes, 7.5% for apartments and 6.0% for townhomes.

The sales-to-active listings ratios tell a similar story: 10.3% for detached homes, 14.2% for condos and 17.2% for townhomes. Townhomes are clearly showing greater relative strength, while detached homes remain the most buyer-friendly of the three major categories.

That's important because a buyer's market changes behaviour. When buyers have lots of options, they don't need to compromise as much. They can compare properties, monitor price reductions and wait until something offers compelling value.

We're seeing exactly that.

Buyers Are Picking Off Good Deals

Two of our recent buyer transactions illustrate how people are taking advantage of these conditions.

At 519–10 Renaissance Square in New Westminster, our buyer purchased a 791-square-foot loft at Murano Lofts for $496,000. Rather than a typical one-bedroom condo, the home offers 17-foot ceilings, two levels, city views, parking and a rare same-floor storage locker.

Our buyer recognized a combination of price and features that would be difficult to replicate and decided it was worth acting.

We saw something similar at 1–1606 W 10th Avenue in Vancouver's Fairview neighbourhood. The building dates to 1982, but the home offers 804 square feet, two bedrooms, parking, storage and a large private garden patio in a boutique nine-unit building. It sold for $687,500.

Neither buyer needed to know whether July 2026 would ultimately prove to be the exact bottom of the market.

They found properties they liked at prices they considered attractive.

That's a significant change from a strong seller's market, when buyers often purchase because they're worried about what will happen if they wait. Today's buyers have the luxury of asking: Is this property good enough, and is the price attractive enough, for me to act now?

If the answer isn't clearly yes, many are prepared to keep looking.

What Vancouver Condo Sellers Need to Know

Our recent sale at 329–2239 Kingsway in East Vancouver demonstrates the other side of this market.

This is a functional two-bedroom, two-bathroom plus flex condo offering 841 square feet, parking, mountain views, in-suite laundry and a convenient Kingsway location.

Yet it took almost three months to sell.

We reduced the price twice as we responded to buyer feedback and competing inventory. Eventually, we found the right buyer and sold for $645,000 against a final asking price of $649,900.

This fits closely with what we've been seeing in the Vancouver condo market, particularly among older and smaller units. Even a slightly overpriced condo can struggle to generate meaningful activity because buyers have alternatives.

The lesson isn't that condos aren't selling. It's that buyers are forcing sellers to find the price at which the market recognizes value.

Once we reached that point on Kingsway, we negotiated a sale very close to our asking price.

Why Some Burnaby Townhomes Are Still Competitive

A Market Pulse of 24 doesn't mean every buyer has unlimited negotiating power.

One of our buyers searching for an older North Burnaby townhome below $900,000 recently encountered multiple offers on two separate properties and was unsuccessful both times.

That's consistent with townhomes having the strongest sales-to-active ratio of the three major housing categories.

It also reinforces something we regularly tell clients: there isn't one Vancouver or Burnaby real estate market.

An older condo competing against numerous similar listings can behave very differently from a well-priced Burnaby townhome suitable for a young family. Price range, location, condition and property type all matter.

We're finding that buyer activity remains particularly noticeable at the more accessible price points. Affordability is still a major constraint in Vancouver and Burnaby, so when a desirable property reaches a price that buyers perceive as good value, competition can return surprisingly quickly.

Is This a Good Time to Move Up in Burnaby?

For some families, we think it can be.

We recently helped a Burnaby family move from a three-bedroom townhome into a move-in-ready detached home—while staying in Burnaby.

This is one of the opportunities we find most interesting in the current market.

Move-up buyers are both sellers and buyers. It's easy to focus on the fact that your existing home might sell for less than it would have at the peak of the market. But that's only half of the equation.

The more important number is often the price gap between the home you're selling and the home you want to buy.

A softer market can mean more detached-home inventory, fewer competing offers and greater negotiating leverage. If higher-priced properties have experienced larger dollar declines, the gap required to move from a townhome into a detached home can actually become more manageable.

Paradoxically, the strongest markets can be some of the hardest times to move up. Your existing home sells easily, but so does the detached home you want—and you may find yourself competing aggressively to buy it.

What Does a 24 Market Pulse Mean?

We aren't yet seeing enough evidence to say the Vancouver housing market has established a durable bottom. July's weakness following June's improvement reinforces our cautious outlook.

But Buyer Advantage doesn't mean buyers shouldn't buy.

It means they have something Vancouver and Burnaby buyers haven't always enjoyed: time, selection and negotiating power.

Our recent transactions illustrate that clearly. Some sellers are having to reduce prices to find the market. Some buyers are patiently picking off properties they consider good value. And certain segments—particularly well-priced townhomes and more affordable attached homes—can still attract considerable competition.

For sellers, pricing and presentation have become critical. For buyers, patience and preparation are being rewarded. And for homeowners considering a move up, today's weaker market may actually create an opportunity that becomes harder to find once confidence and competition return.

Buyers are in control—and they're getting choosy. Right now, understanding value at the neighbourhood and property level matters far more than trying to perfectly predict the exact bottom of the Vancouver or Burnaby real estate market.